Independiente Medellin 0-1 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Cup, 18 Dec 2025

Independiente Medellin
0-1 HT 0-1
Atletico Nacional
📅18/12/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Colombia - Cup – 2025

Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.53
Draw
33%
2.94
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.56
Over 2.5
45%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.96
No
47%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
20%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
36%
-2.5pp
33%
Draw
30%
+2.6pp
34%
Away Win
34%
-0.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
60%
-5.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
40%
+5.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.2pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Independiente Medellin v Atletico Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 37%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.20/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.17
+11% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
315 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.43 xG 1.37
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
313 Passes 248
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
14.12.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOLK
05.12.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-1 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
24.11.2025 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
27.10.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 5-2 HT 4-2 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
08.09.2025 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 3-3 HT 2-2 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
05.05.2025 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional nicked a narrow win over Independiente Medellin 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (33% / 33% / 34%) promised a tight game; Atletico Nacional found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.83 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?

Independiente Medellin 0-1 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Cup on 18/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 33%, draw 33%, Atletico Nacional 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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