Independiente Medellin 3-3 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 8 Sep 2025

📅08/09/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.64
Over 2.5
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
19%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.5pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.7pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.5pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 37%
+8% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
0.93/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.05
-7% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
295 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 79%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
15.2 Crosses 13.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.98 xG 0.97
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
276 Passes 228
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 4
05.05.2025 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
24.03.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
18.11.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
12.11.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
01.11.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOLK
22.04.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 1-2 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
3-3
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.61 xG 2.82
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 6
271 Passes 294
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 25
9 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin and Atletico Nacional shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 2-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 48% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 52%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 1.61 to 2.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.17 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?

Independiente Medellin 3-3 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 08/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 38%, draw 27%, Atletico Nacional 35%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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