Independiente Medellin 1-1 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 5 May 2025

📅05/05/2025 · 🕒00:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
3.08
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
31%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.6
Over 2.5
32%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
1.95
No
65%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
29%
+9.0pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.0pp
31%
Away Win
40%
-9.1pp
68%
Under 2.5
59%
+9.4pp
32%
Over 2.5
41%
-9.4pp
35%
BTTS Yes
47%
-12.6pp
65%
BTTS No
53%
+12.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 45%
+12% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -10%
1.11/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.02
+14% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -5%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
253 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
15.1 Crosses 13.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.87 xG 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
281 Passes 223
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 14
11 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 4
24.03.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
18.11.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
12.11.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
01.11.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOLK
22.04.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 1-2 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
03.12.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-5 HT 0-2 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
1-1
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.30 xG 1.39
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
202 Passes 258
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin and Atletico Nacional shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 31% / 31%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (68%) landed while no to both teams scoring (65%) missed.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 46% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 54%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.30 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.00 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?

Independiente Medellin 1-1 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 05/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 38%, draw 31%, Atletico Nacional 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Independiente Medellin), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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