Porto 4-1 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 18 Dec 2025

📅18/12/2025 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.49
Draw
17%
4.08
Away
15%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.03
Over 2.5
56%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.71
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.18
6+ Goals
11%
10.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.84
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
4%
16.75
X/1
23%
3.97
X/2
5%
12.55
X/X
7%
6.08
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.25
2/2
5%
10.45
2/X
6%
19.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.25 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
63%
+5.4pp
17%
Draw
21%
-4.4pp
15%
Away Win
16%
-1.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
45%
-1.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
55%
+1.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.5pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 19%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.94/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.65
+17% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +108% / -33%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
368 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
21.4 Crosses 28.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 7.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Famalicao
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.01 xG 1.04
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
428 Passes 233
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
31 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
09.11.2025 Famalicao Famalicao 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
18.04.2025 Porto Porto 2-1 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
07.12.2024 Famalicao Famalicao 1-1 HT 1-0 Porto Porto POR
13.04.2024 Porto Porto 2-2 HT 1-2 Famalicao Famalicao POR
02.12.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 0-3 HT 0-2 Porto Porto POR
20.05.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 2-4 HT 2-2 Porto Porto POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
4-1
AWAY Famalicao
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Porto vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto ran out comfortable winners over Famalicao 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Porto had 48% of the ball to Famalicao's 52%, shots finished 12-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Porto and 1.00 for Famalicao.

What was the final score of Porto vs Famalicao?

Porto 4-1 Famalicao in the Portugal - Cup on 18/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Porto 68%, draw 17%, Famalicao 15%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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