Lugano 2-2 Basel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 19 Jan 2025

Lugano
2-2 HT 1-1
Basel
📅19/01/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
34%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.29
2-3 Goals
35%
1.9
4-5 Goals
28%
3.03
6+ Goals
11%
9.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.77
1/2
7%
25.0
1/X
8%
11.85
X/1
16%
6.2
X/2
12%
5.94
X/X
10%
5.01
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
15%
3.52
2/X
8%
11.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+4.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
34%
Away Win
37%
-2.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.6pp
47%
BTTS No
39%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Basel EU Bookmakers 40%
+6% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.22/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.34
-14% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +31%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
16.3 Crosses 16.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Basel
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.01 xG 1.69
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
397 Passes 305
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
27.07.2024 Basel Basel 1-2 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
02.04.2024 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 1-0 Basel Basel İSV
28.02.2024 Basel Basel 2-2 HT 0-2 Lugano Lugano İSVK
03.02.2024 Basel Basel 0-1 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
06.12.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-3 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
21.05.2023 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
2-2
AWAY Basel
2.95 xG 2.42
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 22
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
329 Passes 289
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Basel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano and Basel couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Lugano had 51% of the ball to Basel's 49%, shots finished 18-22, expected goals 2.95 to 2.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lugano and 1.17 for Basel.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Basel?

Lugano 2-2 Basel in the Switzerland - Super League on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Basel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lugano 40%, draw 25%, Basel 34%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lugano) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lugano) ✓ BTTS Yes
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