Basel 1-2 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 27 Jul 2024

Basel
1-2 HT 0-1
Lugano
📅27/07/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.47
2-3 Goals
35%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.44
6+ Goals
10%
13.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.47 — our 31% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.25
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
8%
12.7
X/1
15%
5.14
X/2
13%
6.21
X/X
7%
4.64
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
12%
4.25
2/X
13%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
31%
Away Win
32%
-0.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.2pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basel EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +17%
1.49/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.37
+7% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
369 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
19.7 Crosses 16.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basel
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Lugano
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.43 xG 1.36
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
324 Passes 354
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
02.04.2024 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 1-0 Basel Basel İSV
28.02.2024 Basel Basel 2-2 HT 0-2 Lugano Lugano İSVK
03.02.2024 Basel Basel 0-1 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
06.12.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-3 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
21.05.2023 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
26.02.2023 Lugano Lugano 2-2 HT 2-0 Basel Basel İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basel
1-2
AWAY Lugano
3.00 xG 0.54
41% Ball Possession 59%
22 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
284 Passes 439
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
40 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Basel vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano edged past Basel 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Basel at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Basel had 41% of the ball to Lugano's 59%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 3.00 to 0.54 — on chances, Basel could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Basel and 1.50 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Basel vs Lugano?

Basel 1-2 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basel vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Basel 41%, draw 27%, Lugano 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Basel) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSV More Switzerland - Super League
27 Jul 2024
19:00 Grasshoppers vs Luzern Analysis →
19:00 Sion vs Lausanne Sports Analysis →