Aston Villa vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aston Villa v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals
Aston Villa vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
5-1
HT 2-1
Aston Villa
İNP
3-0
HT 1-0
Newcastle United
İNP
4-0
HT 1-0
Aston Villa
İNP
1-0
HT 1-0
Aston Villa
İNP
Aston Villa 4-1 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics
Aston Villa cruised past Newcastle United 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Aston Villa made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Aston Villa had 48% of the ball to Newcastle United's 52%, shots finished 23-10, expected goals 2.26 to 1.00.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Aston Villa and 2.67 for Newcastle United.
What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Newcastle United?
Aston Villa 4-1 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Newcastle United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 37%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 36%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.