Newcastle United 3-0 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 26 Dec 2024

Newcastle United
3-0 HT 1-0
Aston Villa
📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.21
Over 2.5
50%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.34
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
2.83
6+ Goals
11%
8.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.34 — our 26% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.53
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.05
X/1
17%
4.68
X/2
12%
8.04
X/X
12%
5.5
2/1
9%
22.1
2/2
9%
5.4
2/X
6%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.2pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle United v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 29%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
2.46/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.64
+13% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
35.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
19.0 Crosses 17.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Aston Villa
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.87 xG 1.24
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
305 Passes 336
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
30.01.2024 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-3 HT 0-2 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
12.08.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 5-1 HT 2-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
15.04.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
29.10.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-0 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
13.02.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
21.08.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP

Newcastle United 3-0 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
3-0
AWAY Aston Villa
2.76 xG 0.35
63% Ball Possession 37%
22 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 6
504 Passes 254
92% Pass Accuracy 80%
49 Box Touches 9
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United cruised past Aston Villa 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Newcastle United had 63% of the ball to Aston Villa's 37%, shots finished 22-4, expected goals 2.76 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Newcastle United and 1.17 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

Newcastle United 3-0 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 47%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 26%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✗ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
26 Dec 2024
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