Chelsea 1-2 Fulham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 26 Dec 2024

Chelsea
1-2 HT 1-0
Fulham
📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Chelsea vs Fulham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.51
Over 2.5
52%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
5.09
2-3 Goals
37%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
2.63
6+ Goals
12%
6.51
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.09 — our 25% vs market 14.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.83
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
16.75
X/1
15%
3.92
X/2
10%
12.4
X/X
10%
7.06
2/1
8%
19.95
2/2
7%
8.66
2/X
6%
17.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
63%
-11.4pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.5pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
36%
+12.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
64%
-12.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.8pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chelsea v Fulham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Fulham EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -12%
2.09/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.99
-5% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / +27%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
482 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 79%
32.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
19.7 Crosses 16.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6

Chelsea vs Fulham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Fulham
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.84 xG 0.78
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
450 Passes 371
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.01.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 1-0 HT 1-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
02.10.2023 Fulham Fulham 0-2 HT 0-2 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
30.07.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 2-0 HT 2-0 Fulham Fulham HAZPL
03.02.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-0 HT 0-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
12.01.2023 Fulham Fulham 2-1 HT 1-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
01.05.2021 Chelsea Chelsea 2-0 HT 1-0 Fulham Fulham İNP

Chelsea 1-2 Fulham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
1-2
AWAY Fulham
1.12 xG 1.78
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 1
422 Passes 489
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Fulham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fulham squeezed past Chelsea 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Chelsea at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Chelsea had 47% of the ball to Fulham's 53%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.12 to 1.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelsea had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Chelsea and 0.33 for Fulham.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Fulham?

Chelsea 1-2 Fulham in the England - Premier League on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Fulham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 51%, draw 26%, Fulham 22%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Chelsea) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5
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İNP More England - Premier League
26 Dec 2024
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