Nottingham Forest 1-0 Tottenham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
37%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.63
Over 2.5
58%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.39
No
47%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.01
2-3 Goals
38%
2.05
4-5 Goals
26%
2.48
6+ Goals
13%
5.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.79
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1
7%
5.37
X/2
10%
7.21
X/X
12%
6.19
2/1
6%
21.4
2/2
19%
4.19
2/X
5%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-6.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
38%
Away Win
31%
+6.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
34%
+7.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
66%
-7.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
68%
-15.1pp
47%
BTTS No
32%
+15.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Tottenham EU Bookmakers 34%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -13%
1.61/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.88
+16% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
377 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 81%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.7
20.0 Crosses 19.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Tottenham
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.37 xG 1.63
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
309 Passes 454
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.04.2024 Tottenham Tottenham 3-1 HT 1-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
15.12.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-2 HT 0-1 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
11.03.2023 Tottenham Tottenham 3-1 HT 2-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
09.11.2022 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-0 HT 0-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNLK
28.08.2022 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-2 HT 0-1 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
24.09.2014 Tottenham Tottenham 3-1 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nottingham Forest
1-0
AWAY Tottenham
1.12 xG 0.90
30% Ball Possession 70%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
191 Passes 545
73% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 30
6 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest edged past Tottenham 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Nottingham Forest made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nottingham Forest had 30% of the ball to Tottenham's 70%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 1.12 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tottenham led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Nottingham Forest and 2.17 for Tottenham.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham?

Nottingham Forest 1-0 Tottenham in the England - Premier League on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nottingham Forest win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 39%, draw 24%, Tottenham 38%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nottingham Forest) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nottingham Forest) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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