Southampton 0-1 West Ham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 26 Dec 2024

Southampton
0-1 HT 0-0
West Ham United
📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Southampton vs West Ham United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
45%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
26%
3.08
6+ Goals
13%
10.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.39
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
25.0
1/X
8%
12.7
X/1
9%
6.62
X/2
18%
5.2
X/X
9%
4.92
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
19%
3.12
2/X
8%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.0 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-2.7pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
46%
Away Win
41%
+4.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.2pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Southampton v West Ham United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southampton EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY West Ham United EU Bookmakers 45%
-13% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -2%
1.12/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.43
-43% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +0%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
16.8 Crosses 20.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Southampton vs West Ham United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southampton
2W-2D-2L
AWAY West Ham United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.98 xG 1.61
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
344 Passes 348
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
02.04.2023 West Ham United West Ham United 1-0 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
16.10.2022 Southampton Southampton 1-1 HT 1-0 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
02.03.2022 Southampton Southampton 3-1 HT 1-0 West Ham United West Ham United FAK
26.12.2021 West Ham United West Ham United 2-3 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
11.09.2021 Southampton Southampton 0-0 HT 0-0 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
23.05.2021 West Ham United West Ham United 3-0 HT 2-0 Southampton Southampton İNP

Southampton 0-1 West Ham United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southampton
0-1
AWAY West Ham United
1.40 xG 1.81
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
399 Passes 325
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
31 Box Touches 25
23 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Southampton vs West Ham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

West Ham United squeezed past Southampton 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had West Ham United as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Southampton had 54% of the ball to West Ham United's 46%, shots finished 18-16, expected goals 1.40 to 1.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Southampton and 1.33 for West Ham United.

What was the final score of Southampton vs West Ham United?

Southampton 0-1 West Ham United in the England - Premier League on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southampton vs West Ham United?

Before kick-off our model rated an West Ham United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Southampton 30%, draw 25%, West Ham United 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (West Ham United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (West Ham United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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