Wolverhampton 2-0 Manchester United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.69
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
45%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.73
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.09
6+ Goals
12%
10.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.32
1/2
7%
23.0
1/X
6%
14.45
X/1
10%
8.68
X/2
18%
4.31
X/X
10%
5.28
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.37
2/X
8%
13.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
23%
+7.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.9pp
45%
Away Win
52%
-7.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.7pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolverhampton EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United EU Bookmakers 56%
+2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +8%
1.41/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.25
+18% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +14%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
286 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 466 · 85%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.2
18.5 Crosses 15.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolverhampton
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Manchester United
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.40 xG 2.03
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
367 Passes 398
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 32
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.02.2024 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 3-4 HT 0-2 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
14.08.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 1-0 HT 0-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
13.05.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 2-0 HT 1-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
31.12.2022 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 0-1 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
03.01.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 0-1 HT 0-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
29.08.2021 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 0-1 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolverhampton
2-0
AWAY Manchester United
0.86 xG 0.44
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
394 Passes 366
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Wolverhampton vs Manchester United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wolverhampton got the better of Manchester United 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Manchester United at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Wolverhampton had 51% of the ball to Manchester United's 49%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 0.86 to 0.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester United led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Wolverhampton and 1.50 for Manchester United.

What was the final score of Wolverhampton vs Manchester United?

Wolverhampton 2-0 Manchester United in the England - Premier League on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolverhampton vs Manchester United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Wolverhampton 31%, draw 24%, Manchester United 45%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Manchester United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
26 Dec 2024
15:30 Manchester City vs Everton Analysis →
18:00 Chelsea vs Fulham Analysis →
18:00 Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Analysis →
18:00 Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Analysis →
18:00 Southampton vs West Ham United Analysis →
18:00 Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Analysis →