Elversberg 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.23
Over 2.5
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.55
No
42%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.51
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
28%
2.82
6+ Goals
13%
7.84
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.48
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
10%
4.84
X/2
10%
8.27
X/X
9%
5.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.15
2/2
13%
5.67
2/X
8%
13.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.15 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.1pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elversberg EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf EU Bookmakers 29%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.61/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.66
-4% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
20.1 Crosses 15.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elversberg
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.32 xG 1.76
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
346 Passes 483
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-2 HT 0-0 Elversberg Elversberg AL2
10.02.2024 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 HT 1-0 Elversberg Elversberg AL2
26.08.2023 Elversberg Elversberg 0-5 HT 0-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elversberg
1-1
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf
2.16 xG 0.71
61% Ball Possession 39%
26 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 0
496 Passes 282
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
44 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Elversberg at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, Elversberg had 61% of the ball to Fortuna Düsseldorf's 39%, shots finished 26-5, expected goals 2.16 to 0.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Elversberg and 2.00 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.

What was the final score of Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?

Elversberg 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elversberg win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Elversberg 45%, draw 24%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Elversberg), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Elversberg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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