Nürnberg 2-3 Paderborn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 19 Apr 2025

Nürnberg
2-3 HT 1-1
Paderborn
📅19/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Nürnberg vs Paderborn Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
45%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.53
No
49%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.49
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.83
6+ Goals
10%
7.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.49 — our 26% vs market 17.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.23
1/2
8%
21.5
1/X
8%
13.55
X/1
9%
7.8
X/2
16%
4.99
X/X
12%
5.68
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
21%
2.63
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
28%
+2.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-2.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.0pp
49%
BTTS No
39%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nürnberg v Paderborn — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn EU Bookmakers 51%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -26%
1.24/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.37
-6% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -34%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
265 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 80%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.0
18.4 Crosses 22.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5

Nürnberg vs Paderborn Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nürnberg
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Paderborn
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.53 xG 2.17
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
312 Passes 393
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.11.2024 Paderborn Paderborn 3-2 HT 1-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
19.04.2024 Nürnberg Nürnberg 0-2 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
11.11.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 1-3 HT 0-3 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
28.05.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 0-1 HT 0-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
13.11.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-1 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
15.01.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-2 HT 0-2 Paderborn Paderborn AL2

Nürnberg 2-3 Paderborn — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nürnberg
2-3
AWAY Paderborn
0.93 xG 1.31
60% Ball Possession 40%
3 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
525 Passes 336
90% Pass Accuracy 87%
9 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nürnberg vs Paderborn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn nicked a narrow win over Nürnberg 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Paderborn as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Nürnberg had 60% of the ball to Paderborn's 40%, shots finished 3-16, expected goals 0.93 to 1.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Nürnberg and 1.50 for Paderborn.

What was the final score of Nürnberg vs Paderborn?

Nürnberg 2-3 Paderborn in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nürnberg vs Paderborn?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Nürnberg 30%, draw 25%, Paderborn 44%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paderborn), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paderborn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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