Osnabrück 1-0 Ingolstadt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
34%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.08
2-3 Goals
44%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
3.19
6+ Goals
9%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.04
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
9%
5.24
X/2
7%
6.82
X/X
9%
5.23
2/1
6%
23.75
2/2
19%
4.56
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.25
Value flag · 2/X at 13.25 — our 12% vs market 4.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-4.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+3.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.2pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osnabrück EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +5%
1.55/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.47
-24% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 75%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
21.4 Crosses 22.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osnabrück
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Ingolstadt
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.89 xG 1.88
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
387 Passes 217
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
19 Box Touches 24
27 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.11.2024 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 4-2 HT 2-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
12.02.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-4 HT 1-3 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
10.08.2022 Osnabrück Osnabrück 0-1 HT 0-1 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
30.05.2021 Osnabrück Osnabrück 3-1 HT 2-1 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2P
27.05.2021 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 3-0 HT 2-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2P
15.05.2011 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 0-1 HT 0-1 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osnabrück
1-0
AWAY Ingolstadt
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
217 Passes 285
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Osnabrück vs Ingolstadt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osnabrück squeezed past Ingolstadt 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Osnabrück made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Osnabrück had 46% of the ball to Ingolstadt's 54%, shots finished 9-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Osnabrück and 1.67 for Ingolstadt.

What was the final score of Osnabrück vs Ingolstadt?

Osnabrück 1-0 Ingolstadt in the Germany - 3rd Division on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osnabrück vs Ingolstadt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osnabrück win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Osnabrück 39%, draw 27%, Ingolstadt 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osnabrück), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Osnabrück) ✓ Under 2.5
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