Barcelona SC 1-0 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
60%
-8.8pp
28%
Draw
22%
+5.3pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+3.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.6pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barcelona SC EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +31%
1.53/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.54
+7% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / +30%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
356 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 72%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
19.0 Crosses 14.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barcelona SC
3W-1D-2L
AWAY El Nacional
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.23 xG 1.25
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
246 Passes 226
76% Pass Accuracy 71%
17 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.02.2025 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 1-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional LKU
20.02.2025 El Nacional El Nacional 0-1 HT 0-0 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC LKU
06.10.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 3-0 HT 2-0 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKV1
19.04.2024 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 1-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
06.11.2023 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 3-2 HT 1-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
29.05.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 4-1 HT 2-1 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barcelona SC
1-0
AWAY El Nacional
1.10 xG 1.07
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
412 Passes 196
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 17
POST-MATCH Barcelona SC vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona SC edged past El Nacional 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Barcelona SC as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Barcelona SC had 63% of the ball to El Nacional's 37%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.10 to 1.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona SC had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Barcelona SC and 1.67 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Barcelona SC vs El Nacional?

Barcelona SC 1-0 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barcelona SC vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barcelona SC win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Barcelona SC 52%, draw 28%, El Nacional 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona SC), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona SC) ✓ BTTS No
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