Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Rakow Czestochowa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
2.8
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.85
6+ Goals
9%
17.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 29% vs market 28.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.47
1/2
9%
29.0
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
19%
6.21
X/2
17%
5.32
X/X
12%
4.28
2/1
6%
33.5
2/2
14%
3.51
2/X
7%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
33%
+2.2pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.4pp
39%
Away Win
38%
+1.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.8pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 43%
-6% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -12%
1.45/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.11
+0% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
302 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 77%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
16.8 Crosses 17.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.91 xG 1.31
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
359 Passes 307
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 1-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
11.05.2024 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 2-1 HT 2-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
12.11.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-1 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
05.03.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-2 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
09.11.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-1 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POLK
31.08.2022 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 1-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
1-0
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
1.41 xG 0.28
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 0
13 Corners 2
400 Passes 177
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
28 Box Touches 10
28 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Rakow Czestochowa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin edged past Rakow Czestochowa 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 25% / 39% — and on the day Pogon Szczecin made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 66% of the ball to Rakow Czestochowa's 34%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 1.41 to 0.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.33 for Rakow Czestochowa.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Rakow Czestochowa in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 36%, draw 25%, Rakow Czestochowa 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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