ND Primorje 2-2 Nafta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.74
Over 2.5
39%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.82
No
60%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
3.86
6+ Goals
7%
17.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 36% vs market 29.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
14%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.5pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.3pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
54%
+7.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
46%
-7.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
51%
-11.2pp
60%
BTTS No
49%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ND Primorje EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Nafta EU Bookmakers 34%
-30% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
0.51/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/2.10
-62% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -41%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ND Primorje
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Nafta
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
21.02.2025 Nafta Nafta 2-2 HT 2-2 ND Primorje ND Primorje SLVN
26.10.2024 ND Primorje ND Primorje 1-1 HT 0-0 Nafta Nafta SLVN
10.08.2024 Nafta Nafta 0-3 HT 0-2 ND Primorje ND Primorje SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ND Primorje
2-2
AWAY Nafta
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH ND Primorje vs Nafta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ND Primorje and Nafta shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 31%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, ND Primorje had 63% of the ball to Nafta's 37%, shots finished 16-10.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, ND Primorje had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for ND Primorje and 1.00 for Nafta.

What was the final score of ND Primorje vs Nafta?

ND Primorje 2-2 Nafta in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ND Primorje vs Nafta?

Before kick-off our model rated a ND Primorje win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split ND Primorje 39%, draw 29%, Nafta 31%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (ND Primorje) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
SLVN More Slovenia - 1st Division
19 Apr 2025
18:30 Koper vs NK Bravo Analysis →
21:15 Olimpija Ljubljana vs Domzale Analysis →