Spartak Moskova 3-1 FC Akhmat Grozny — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 19 Apr 2026

📅19/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
16%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.09
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
2.89
6+ Goals
12%
8.72
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.09 — our 27% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1.67
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
5%
17.65
X/1
15%
3.85
X/2
6%
14.2
X/X
10%
6.71
2/1
8%
21.1
2/2
7%
11.8
2/X
7%
20.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
66%
-4.8pp
22%
Draw
19%
+2.8pp
16%
Away Win
14%
+2.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.9pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 17%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +14%
1.73/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.67
-11% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +7%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
442 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 70%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
19.6 Crosses 14.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Moskova
1W-4D-1L
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.10 xG 0.61
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
421 Passes 190
81% Pass Accuracy 66%
27 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2025 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-2 HT 0-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
30.03.2025 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-0 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
11.08.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
03.12.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 2-1 HT 1-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
26.08.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
01.04.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Moskova
3-1
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
2.10 xG 0.98
67% Ball Possession 33%
18 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 1
443 Passes 183
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
41 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Spartak Moskova vs FC Akhmat Grozny
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Moskova got the better of FC Akhmat Grozny 3-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Spartak Moskova as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Spartak Moskova had 67% of the ball to FC Akhmat Grozny's 33%, shots finished 18-5, expected goals 2.10 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Spartak Moskova and 0.50 for FC Akhmat Grozny.

What was the final score of Spartak Moskova vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Spartak Moskova 3-1 FC Akhmat Grozny in the Russia - Premier League on 19/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Moskova vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Spartak Moskova 62%, draw 22%, FC Akhmat Grozny 16%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Moskova), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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