Burnley 1-2 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.33
Over 2.5
58%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.96
2-3 Goals
42%
1.95
4-5 Goals
25%
2.77
6+ Goals
12%
7.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+0.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
39%
+3.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
61%
-3.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-5.9pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burnley EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.72/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.96/0.92
+10% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +31%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
315 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 78%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
22.6 Crosses 22.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burnley
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.05 xG 0.57
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
393 Passes 298
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
18.09.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-1 Burnley Burnley İNP
30.08.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-1 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNLK
23.02.2016 Burnley Burnley 1-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
20.10.2015 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNCL
22.02.2014 Burnley Burnley 3-1 HT 3-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
23.11.2013 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 1-1 Burnley Burnley İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burnley
1-2
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.21 xG 1.78
73% Ball Possession 27%
20 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
591 Passes 176
90% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Burnley vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest edged past Burnley 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Nottingham Forest as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Burnley had 73% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 27%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 1.21 to 1.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Burnley and 0.67 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?

Burnley 1-2 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nottingham Forest win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Burnley 32%, draw 26%, Nottingham Forest 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nottingham Forest), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nottingham Forest) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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