FC Cincinnati 3-1 St. Louis City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
32%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.33
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
22%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
8.96
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.33 — our 26% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.15
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
13%
4.18
X/2
14%
9.65
X/X
13%
5.61
2/1
7%
21.45
2/2
11%
6.86
2/X
7%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
56%
-15.0pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.0pp
32%
Away Win
21%
+10.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.7pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 24%
+11% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +7%
1.62/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.64
-9% / +107% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
366 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
14.1 Crosses 16.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Cincinnati
0W-0D-1L
AWAY St. Louis City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
1.44 xG 1.74
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
320 Passes 217
76% Pass Accuracy 69%
31 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.04.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 5-1 HT 3-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Cincinnati
3-1
AWAY St. Louis City
2.96 xG 0.60
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
371 Passes 294
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
32 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Cincinnati vs St. Louis City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati beat St. Louis City 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Cincinnati as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, FC Cincinnati had 55% of the ball to St. Louis City's 45%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 2.96 to 0.60.

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs St. Louis City?

FC Cincinnati 3-1 St. Louis City in the USA - Major League on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Cincinnati vs St. Louis City?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split FC Cincinnati 41%, draw 27%, St. Louis City 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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