Toronto FC 5-1 CF Montreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
29%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.03
Over 2.5
58%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.7
No
42%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.86
2-3 Goals
36%
1.83
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
3.18
6+ Goals
13%
10.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.18 — our 30% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
54%
-10.2pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
29%
Away Win
21%
+8.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
45%
-3.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
55%
+3.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
55%
+2.9pp
42%
BTTS No
45%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 24%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.94/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.57
+3% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
386 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 78%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
17.2 Crosses 15.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
0W-1D-5L
AWAY CF Montreal
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.96 xG 2.19
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
380 Passes 448
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.08.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-3 HT 0-2 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
14.05.2023 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
05.09.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 3-4 HT 2-3 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
17.07.2022 CF Montreal CF Montreal 1-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
24.10.2021 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-1 HT 0-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
28.08.2021 CF Montreal CF Montreal 3-1 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
5-1
AWAY CF Montreal
3.26 xG 2.13
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
472 Passes 447
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs CF Montreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toronto FC ran out comfortable winners over CF Montreal 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Toronto FC as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Toronto FC had 51% of the ball to CF Montreal's 49%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 3.26 to 2.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CF Montreal led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Toronto FC and 2.33 for CF Montreal.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?

Toronto FC 5-1 CF Montreal in the USA - Major League on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toronto FC win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 44%, draw 27%, CF Montreal 29%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toronto FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Toronto FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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