Chicago Fire 1-3 Columbus Crew — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.88
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.17
6+ Goals
11%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 26% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.7pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Columbus Crew EU Bookmakers 40%
-7% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +0%
1.24/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.42
-14% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -7%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
338 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 81%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
18.9 Crosses 14.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chicago Fire
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Columbus Crew
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.73 xG 1.88
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
315 Passes 482
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 36
10 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 1
10.03.2024 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 2-1 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
21.09.2023 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 3-0 HT 3-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
11.06.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-2 HT 0-0 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
04.09.2022 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 0-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
10.07.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-3 HT 2-0 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
07.11.2021 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 2-0 HT 1-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chicago Fire
1-3
AWAY Columbus Crew
1.53 xG 0.90
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 5
340 Passes 540
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
24 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Columbus Crew saw off Chicago Fire 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Columbus Crew made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Chicago Fire had 41% of the ball to Columbus Crew's 59%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.53 to 0.90 — the balance of chances actually favoured Chicago Fire.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Columbus Crew led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Chicago Fire and 2.00 for Columbus Crew.

What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew?

Chicago Fire 1-3 Columbus Crew in the USA - Major League on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew?

Before kick-off our model rated an Columbus Crew win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 35%, draw 27%, Columbus Crew 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Columbus Crew), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Columbus Crew) ✓ Over 2.5
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