Minnesota United 2-1 Portland Timbers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 19 May 2024

Minnesota United
2-1 HT 0-1
Portland Timbers
📅19/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
USA - Major League – 2024

Minnesota United vs Portland Timbers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.5
No
45%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.15
2-3 Goals
37%
1.96
4-5 Goals
26%
2.73
6+ Goals
14%
6.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.24
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.9
X/1
25%
4.38
X/2
8%
8.79
X/X
8%
6.17
2/1
6%
20.2
2/2
12%
5.82
2/X
6%
14.2
Value flag · 1/X at 13.9 — our 12% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-4.9pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.2pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
62%
-7.2pp
45%
BTTS No
38%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Minnesota United v Portland Timbers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Portland Timbers EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.80/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.77
+1% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
348 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
22.1 Crosses 14.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Minnesota United vs Portland Timbers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Minnesota United
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Portland Timbers
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.94 xG 1.10
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
336 Passes 316
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.07.2023 Minnesota United Minnesota United 4-1 HT 2-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
21.05.2023 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 0-1 HT 0-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
11.09.2022 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 1-0 HT 0-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
30.07.2022 Minnesota United Minnesota United 4-4 HT 3-1 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
22.11.2021 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 3-1 HT 1-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
25.07.2021 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-1 HT 0-1 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD

Minnesota United 2-1 Portland Timbers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Minnesota United
2-1
AWAY Portland Timbers
2.29 xG 1.41
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 7
382 Passes 241
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
36 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Minnesota United vs Portland Timbers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Minnesota United squeezed past Portland Timbers 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Minnesota United as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Minnesota United had 59% of the ball to Portland Timbers's 41%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 2.29 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Minnesota United had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Minnesota United and 1.67 for Portland Timbers.

What was the final score of Minnesota United vs Portland Timbers?

Minnesota United 2-1 Portland Timbers in the USA - Major League on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Minnesota United vs Portland Timbers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Minnesota United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Minnesota United 48%, draw 26%, Portland Timbers 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Minnesota United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Minnesota United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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