Santos 4-0 Brusque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.75
Over
41%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.33
No
59%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.96
2-3
42%
1.77
4-5
17%
3.94
6+
8%
17.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.96 — our 33% vs market 28.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
67%
-9.5pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.6pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+5.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
53%
+6.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
47%
-6.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
39%
+1.8pp
59%
BTTS No
61%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Brusque EU Bookmakers 14%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -13%
1.20/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.75
+90% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / -20%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
369 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 75%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
12.5 Crosses 17.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
4-0
AWAY Brusque
1.24 xG 0.12
57% Ball Possession 43%
23 Total Shots 8
11 Shots on Target 0
11 Corners 5
489 Passes 348
90% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 3
26 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Santos vs Brusque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos ran out comfortable winners over Brusque 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Santos as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (59%) landed while under 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Santos had 57% of the ball to Brusque's 43%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 1.24 to 0.12.

What was the final score of Santos vs Brusque?

Santos 4-0 Brusque in the Brazil - Serie B on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs Brusque?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Santos 58%, draw 25%, Brusque 18%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Santos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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