Sport Recife 1-2 Avai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under
56%
1.8
Over
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.19
No Pick
58%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1
32%
3.08
2-3
38%
1.78
4-5
21%
3.8
6+
9%
16.5
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.08 — our 32% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
54%
Home Win
67%
-12.1pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.8pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+6.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.4pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife The Market 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Avai The Market 16%
+3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.44/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.39
+46% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
417 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 76%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.8
22.5 Crosses 14.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Avai
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.64 xG 1.19
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
446 Passes 236
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 11
28 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
30.09.2023 Avai Avai 2-2 HT 2-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
08.06.2023 Sport Recife Sport Recife 2-1 HT 1-0 Avai Avai BR2
10.09.2017 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-1 HT 0-1 Avai Avai BR1
04.06.2017 Avai Avai 1-0 HT 1-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
15.10.2015 Sport Recife Sport Recife 3-0 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BR1
05.07.2015 Avai Avai 2-2 HT 2-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
1-2
AWAY Avai
0.37 xG 0.74
39% Ball Possession 61%
3 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 11
282 Passes 433
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
10 Box Touches 21
4 Crosses 39
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs Avai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avai squeezed past Sport Recife 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Sport Recife at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sport Recife had 39% of the ball to Avai's 61%, shots finished 3-18, expected goals 0.37 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sport Recife and 1.17 for Avai.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs Avai?

Sport Recife 1-2 Avai in the Brazil - Serie B on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs Avai?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 54%, draw 26%, Avai 19%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sport Recife) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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