AVS 0-1 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 19 May 2024

AVS
0-1 HT 0-1
Tondela
📅19/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.47
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
24%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-7.1pp
20%
Draw
20%
+0.5pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.7pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 20%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
1.34/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.41
-52% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.6 Crosses 16.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AVS
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Tondela
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.52 xG 2.44
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 9
128 Passes 93
49% Pass Accuracy 47%
19 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.01.2024 Tondela Tondela 3-2 HT 1-1 AVS AVS POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
0-1
AWAY Tondela
2.85 xG 1.16
64% Ball Possession 36%
29 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 7
10 Corners 1
329 Passes 157
77% Pass Accuracy 61%
34 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AVS vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela edged past AVS 1-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had AVS at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, AVS had 64% of the ball to Tondela's 36%, shots finished 29-12, expected goals 2.85 to 1.16 — the balance of chances actually favoured AVS.

What was the final score of AVS vs Tondela?

AVS 0-1 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated a AVS win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split AVS 57%, draw 20%, Tondela 23%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AVS) ✗ Over 2.5
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