Nacional 2-0 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 19 May 2024

Nacional
2-0 HT 2-0
Mafra
📅19/05/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Nacional vs Mafra Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.34
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
23%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.61
Over 2.5
58%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
33%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
70%
-15.0pp
22%
Draw
18%
+4.3pp
23%
Away Win
13%
+10.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nacional v Mafra — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra EU Bookmakers 16%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +17%
1.91/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.25
+55% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / +11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
398 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
30.3 Crosses 11.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9

Nacional vs Mafra Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
0W-3D-2L
AWAY Mafra
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
1.37 xG 1.70
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
248 Passes 342
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
15.01.2024 Mafra Mafra 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
13.02.2023 Mafra Mafra 3-3 HT 1-2 Nacional Nacional POR2
21.08.2022 Nacional Nacional 0-2 HT 0-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
13.03.2022 Mafra Mafra 3-2 HT 1-1 Nacional Nacional POR2
08.02.2020 Mafra Mafra 1-1 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR2

Nacional 2-0 Mafra — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
2-0
AWAY Mafra
3.93 xG 0.75
39% Ball Possession 61%
16 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 10
195 Passes 341
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Mafra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional beat Mafra 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Nacional as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nacional had 39% of the ball to Mafra's 61%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 3.93 to 0.75.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Mafra led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Nacional and 1.80 for Mafra.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Mafra?

Nacional 2-0 Mafra in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Mafra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Nacional 55%, draw 22%, Mafra 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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