Aris Saloniki 1-2 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.48
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
51%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
15%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
19%
+3.7pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.1pp
51%
Away Win
58%
-6.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.3pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 62%
+13% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.17/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/0.67
+65% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -2%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
238 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 428 · 82%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
14.7 Crosses 18.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aris Saloniki
2W-1D-3L
AWAY PAOK
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.60 xG 1.13
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
264 Passes 357
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 4
10.03.2024 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
07.01.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 2-1 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
17.09.2023 PAOK PAOK 0-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
30.04.2023 PAOK PAOK 3-2 HT 0-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
19.03.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-2 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
04.01.2023 PAOK PAOK 1-0 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aris Saloniki
1-2
AWAY PAOK
1.29 xG 0.86
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
263 Passes 185
75% Pass Accuracy 64%
23 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aris Saloniki vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PAOK edged past Aris Saloniki 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had PAOK as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Aris Saloniki had 55% of the ball to PAOK's 45%, shots finished 16-5, expected goals 1.29 to 0.86 — the balance of chances actually favoured Aris Saloniki.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PAOK led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Aris Saloniki and 1.17 for PAOK.

What was the final score of Aris Saloniki vs PAOK?

Aris Saloniki 1-2 PAOK in the Greece - Super League on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aris Saloniki vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated an PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Aris Saloniki 23%, draw 26%, PAOK 51%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PAOK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PAOK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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