Drogheda United 2-1 Dundalk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - FAI Cup, 19 Jul 2024

📅19/07/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.59
6+ Goals
10%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 28% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-0.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.6pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Drogheda United EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundalk EU Bookmakers 45%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.65/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/2.75
-26% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +58% / -19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
235 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 216 · 60%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Drogheda United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Dundalk
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.68 xG 1.04
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
166 Passes 277
57% Pass Accuracy 69%
21 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.07.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 4-2 HT 2-1 Drogheda United Drogheda United İRL
06.05.2024 Drogheda United Drogheda United 2-1 HT 0-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
01.04.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 0-0 HT 0-0 Drogheda United Drogheda United İRL
02.02.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 1-2 HT 0-0 Drogheda United Drogheda United IRLLSC
29.09.2023 Dundalk Dundalk 3-1 HT 1-1 Drogheda United Drogheda United İRL
23.06.2023 Drogheda United Drogheda United 1-2 HT 1-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
POST-MATCH Drogheda United vs Dundalk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Drogheda United squeezed past Dundalk 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Drogheda United made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dundalk led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Drogheda United and 1.83 for Dundalk.

What was the final score of Drogheda United vs Dundalk?

Drogheda United 2-1 Dundalk in the Ireland - FAI Cup on 19/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dundalk win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Drogheda United 31%, draw 28%, Dundalk 40%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dundalk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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