Independiente Del Valle 2-1 Aucas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 19 Jul 2025

📅19/07/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-6.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.1pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Aucas EU Bookmakers 27%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +3%
1.41/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.30
+27% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
348 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 73%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
19.8 Crosses 16.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Aucas
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.67 xG 0.81
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
365 Passes 206
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2025 Aucas Aucas 1-2 HT 1-2 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
01.09.2024 Aucas Aucas 0-2 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
25.03.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
12.11.2023 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
03.06.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
11.02.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-0 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKVSK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
2-1
AWAY Aucas
0.63 xG 0.52
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
374 Passes 330
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Aucas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle nicked a narrow win over Aucas 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 52% of the ball to Aucas's 48%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.63 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 0.67 for Aucas.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Aucas?

Independiente Del Valle 2-1 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 19/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Aucas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 42%, draw 28%, Aucas 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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