Valencia 1-2 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 19 Jul 2025

📅19/07/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.07
Over 2.5
42%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.63
No
54%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.76
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.04
6+ Goals
9%
9.86
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 30% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-3.9pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.8pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
44%
+14.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
56%
-14.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
57%
-11.1pp
54%
BTTS No
43%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valencia EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.44/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.64/1.95
-13% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +107% / -22%
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
496 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valencia
0W-1D-1L
AWAY CD Castellon
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
65% Ball Possession 35%
10 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 5
20.07.2024 Valencia Valencia 0-0 HT 0-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon HAZ
03.08.2022 CD Castellon CD Castellon 1-0 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valencia
1-2
AWAY CD Castellon
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Valencia vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Castellon nicked a narrow win over Valencia 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Valencia at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Valencia had 40% of the ball to CD Castellon's 60%, shots finished 6-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, CD Castellon led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Valencia and 0.50 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Valencia vs CD Castellon?

Valencia 1-2 CD Castellon in the Friendlies on 19/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valencia vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valencia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Valencia 43%, draw 28%, CD Castellon 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Valencia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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