Shonan Bellmare 3-3 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 19 Jul 2025

📅19/07/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
43%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.85
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.09
6+ Goals
9%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 31% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.24
1/2
7%
22.45
1/X
8%
14.35
X/1
6%
8.51
X/2
13%
4.64
X/X
13%
5.32
2/1
9%
35.0
2/2
23%
2.45
2/X
6%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+4.2pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
43%
Away Win
50%
-7.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.5pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 55%
-9% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.07/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/0.94
-34% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +24%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
278 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 81%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
20.2 Crosses 19.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shonan Bellmare
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.32 xG 1.51
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
329 Passes 341
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
22.02.2025 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-2 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
22.09.2024 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-2 HT 1-2 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
30.03.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-0 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
30.09.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-2 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
02.08.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JPK
20.05.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-2 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shonan Bellmare
3-3
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
2.29 xG 2.30
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 22
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
297 Passes 447
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 40
14 Crosses 27
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Shonan Bellmare vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shonan Bellmare and Cerezo Osaka couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Cerezo Osaka at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Shonan Bellmare had 41% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 59%, shots finished 14-22, expected goals 2.29 to 2.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Shonan Bellmare and 1.33 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Shonan Bellmare vs Cerezo Osaka?

Shonan Bellmare 3-3 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 19/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shonan Bellmare vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Shonan Bellmare 29%, draw 28%, Cerezo Osaka 43%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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