Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Shonan Bellmare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.34
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
3.33
6+ Goals
11%
12.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.3
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
13%
5.32
X/2
12%
6.31
X/X
10%
4.68
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
16%
4.29
2/X
10%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
41%
-3.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+3.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.0pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 36%
-2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +23%
1.31/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.41
+2% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
334 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
20.7 Crosses 15.5
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.50 xG 1.01
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
323 Passes 338
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2024 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-2 HT 1-2 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
30.03.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-0 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
30.09.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-2 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
02.08.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JPK
20.05.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-2 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
01.10.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-2
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
1.47 xG 1.99
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
472 Passes 274
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 30
23 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Shonan Bellmare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shonan Bellmare nicked a narrow win over Cerezo Osaka 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Shonan Bellmare found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 60% of the ball to Shonan Bellmare's 40%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.47 to 1.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 0.83 for Shonan Bellmare.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Shonan Bellmare?

Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Shonan Bellmare in the Japan - J1 League on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Shonan Bellmare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 37%, draw 28%, Shonan Bellmare 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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