Pumas UNAM 0-3 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 19 Jul 2026

📅19/07/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 28% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
38%
+2.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
33%
Away Win
35%
-2.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 38%
-3% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.35/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.32
+1% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
295 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 81%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
16.5 Crosses 15.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Pachuca
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.88 xG 1.46
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
410 Passes 299
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.05.2026 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
15.05.2026 Pachuca Pachuca 1-0 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
26.04.2026 Pachuca Pachuca 0-2 HT 0-2 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
21.11.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 3-1 HT 2-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
20.07.2025 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-3 HT 2-2 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
17.02.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 2-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
0-3
AWAY Pachuca
0.28 xG 1.07
9 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 4
489 Passes 287
19 Box Touches 21
29 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca ran out comfortable winners over Pumas UNAM 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Pachuca made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.28 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.50 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?

Pumas UNAM 0-3 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 19/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 40%, draw 28%, Pachuca 33%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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