Milan 1-0 Udinese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
56%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.21
Over
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
23%
4.47
2-3
38%
1.9
4-5
28%
2.92
6+
11%
8.51
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.47 — our 23% vs market 17.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.66
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
18.9
X/1
17%
3.58
X/2
7%
15.2
X/X
5%
6.86
2/1
6%
21.85
2/2
9%
11.7
2/X
9%
19.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Milan win — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
66%
-10.2pp
22%
Draw
19%
+3.0pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+7.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.3pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Udinese EU Bookmakers 17%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
1.81/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.83
+3% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
413 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 79%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
21.3 Crosses 12.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Udinese
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.54 xG 1.30
66% Ball Possession 34%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
460 Passes 211
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 4
20.01.2024 Udinese Udinese 2-3 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
04.11.2023 Milan Milan 0-1 HT 0-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
18.03.2023 Udinese Udinese 3-1 HT 2-1 Milan Milan İTA
13.08.2022 Milan Milan 4-2 HT 2-2 Udinese Udinese İTA
25.02.2022 Milan Milan 1-1 HT 1-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
11.12.2021 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 1-0 Milan Milan İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
1-0
AWAY Udinese
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 4
278 Passes 367
83% Pass Accuracy 89%
POST-MATCH Milan vs Udinese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan edged past Udinese 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Milan had 44% of the ball to Udinese's 56%, shots finished 10-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Milan and 1.67 for Udinese.

What was the final score of Milan vs Udinese?

Milan 1-0 Udinese in the Italy - Serie A on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Udinese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Milan 56%, draw 22%, Udinese 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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