Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Jubilo Iwata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 19 Oct 2024

Cerezo Osaka
1-2 HT 0-1
Jubilo Iwata
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Cerezo Osaka vs Jubilo Iwata Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.29
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 30% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.45
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.75
X/1
25%
4.22
X/2
8%
8.27
X/X
10%
4.73
2/1
10%
24.45
2/2
9%
6.31
2/X
12%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-0.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.5pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cerezo Osaka v Jubilo Iwata — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 27%
-7% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -14%
1.33/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.70
-14% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
406 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
21.0 Crosses 20.1
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.2

Cerezo Osaka vs Jubilo Iwata Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.76 xG 0.85
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
421 Passes 286
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.06.2024 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
17.09.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 2-2 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
06.05.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 2-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
24.08.2019 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 0-2 HT 0-2 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
22.06.2019 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-0 HT 1-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
14.09.2018 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP

Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Jubilo Iwata — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-2
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
2.34 xG 2.02
67% Ball Possession 33%
20 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 1
449 Passes 188
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
32 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Jubilo Iwata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jubilo Iwata edged past Cerezo Osaka 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Cerezo Osaka at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 67% of the ball to Jubilo Iwata's 33%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 2.34 to 2.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 0.83 for Jubilo Iwata.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Jubilo Iwata?

Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Jubilo Iwata in the Japan - J1 League on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Jubilo Iwata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 49%, draw 27%, Jubilo Iwata 23%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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