Kyoto Sanga 2-0 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
27%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.33
Over 2.5
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.96
2-3 Goals
43%
1.95
4-5 Goals
24%
2.77
6+ Goals
13%
7.32
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.94
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.8
X/1
13%
4.06
X/2 EV+ ✗
11%
11.2
X/X
12%
6.26
2/1
7%
20.5
2/2
10%
7.81
2/X
5%
15.3
Value flag · X/2 at 11.2 — our 11% vs market 5.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
59%
-7.8pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.2pp
27%
Away Win
19%
+7.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.0pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 22%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -7%
1.00/0.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.57
-46% / +88% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
395 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
Crosses 15.9
Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kyoto Sanga
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.21 xG 1.08
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
206 Passes 384
66% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
22.06.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 3-0 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
30.09.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 3-2 HT 1-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
23.04.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-3 HT 1-3 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
01.10.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-1 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
23.04.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 3-0 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JLK
10.04.2022 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 3-1 HT 2-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kyoto Sanga
2-0
AWAY Sagan Tosu
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 9
POST-MATCH Kyoto Sanga vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kyoto Sanga saw off Sagan Tosu 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kyoto Sanga as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kyoto Sanga had 43% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 57%, shots finished 13-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 2.17 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Kyoto Sanga vs Sagan Tosu?

Kyoto Sanga 2-0 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kyoto Sanga vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kyoto Sanga win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Kyoto Sanga 51%, draw 22%, Sagan Tosu 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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