Necaxa 1-2 Tijuana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.09
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
3.07
6+ Goals
12%
9.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
56%
-1.8pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
21%
Away Win
21%
+0.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Tijuana EU Bookmakers 24%
+11% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -19%
1.71/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.75
+28% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -21%
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
359 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 79%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
21.1 Crosses 15.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Tijuana
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.01 xG 1.24
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
297 Passes 336
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 2-3 HT 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
08.07.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
04.02.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 0-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
19.09.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
19.02.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
29.09.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 3-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
1-2
AWAY Tijuana
45% Ball Possession 55%
23 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 0
224 Passes 325
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Tijuana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana nicked a narrow win over Necaxa 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Necaxa at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Necaxa had 45% of the ball to Tijuana's 55%, shots finished 23-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Necaxa and 1.00 for Tijuana.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Tijuana?

Necaxa 1-2 Tijuana in the Mexico - Primera on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Tijuana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 54%, draw 25%, Tijuana 21%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Necaxa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Necaxa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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