Puebla 1-2 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 19 Oct 2024

Puebla
1-2 HT 1-1
Cruz Azul
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Puebla vs Cruz Azul Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.71
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
49%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.12
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.05
6+ Goals
9%
9.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.12 — our 26% vs market 19.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
30%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
18%
+7.4pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.0pp
49%
Away Win
59%
-9.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.0pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puebla v Cruz Azul — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 62%
-3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.16/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.33
+17% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -33%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
298 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 429 · 84%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.2
17.8 Crosses 19.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8

Puebla vs Cruz Azul Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.39 xG 1.92
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
304 Passes 369
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
13.04.2024 Puebla Puebla 0-1 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
13.11.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-2 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
18.02.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-3 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
24.07.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-2 HT 2-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
06.03.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-3 HT 1-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
25.09.2021 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK

Puebla 1-2 Cruz Azul — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
1-2
AWAY Cruz Azul
0.39 xG 2.44
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 9
231 Passes 420
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
7 Box Touches 30
10 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul squeezed past Puebla 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Puebla had 37% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 63%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 0.39 to 2.44 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cruz Azul's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Puebla and 1.50 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Cruz Azul?

Puebla 1-2 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Puebla 26%, draw 25%, Cruz Azul 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ BTTS No
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