Queretaro 0-1 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 19 Oct 2024

Queretaro
0-1 HT 0-1
Toluca
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Queretaro vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.04
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
54%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.54
2-3 Goals
43%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.9
6+ Goals
10%
8.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
6%
X/2
16%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
29%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
22%
+1.7pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.6pp
54%
Away Win
55%
-1.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.2pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Queretaro v Toluca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 59%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.07/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.08
-18% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -30%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
301 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 83%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.2
18.9 Crosses 16.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Queretaro vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Toluca
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.98 xG 1.88
34% Ball Possession 66%
11 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
203 Passes 473
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 33
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
13.01.2024 Queretaro Queretaro 2-2 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
08.10.2023 Toluca Toluca 3-1 HT 1-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
06.03.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-0 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
02.10.2022 Toluca Toluca 4-1 HT 2-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
25.02.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
03.10.2021 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK

Queretaro 0-1 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
0-1
AWAY Toluca
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 4
285 Passes 509
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca edged past Queretaro 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Queretaro had 39% of the ball to Toluca's 61%, shots finished 14-18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Queretaro and 1.83 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs Toluca?

Queretaro 0-1 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 23%, draw 23%, Toluca 54%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
19 Oct 2024
00:00 Atlas vs Mazatlan Analysis →
06:00 Necaxa vs Tijuana Analysis →
06:05 Puebla vs Cruz Azul Analysis →