Kocaelispor 1-0 Ümraniyespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.39
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.5
6+ Goals
9%
13.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.14
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
15.15
X/1
19%
3.88
X/2
9%
9.78
X/X
14%
5.11
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
11%
7.73
2/X
5%
15.9
Value flag · 1/X at 15.15 — our 9% vs market 3.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-9.4pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.4pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.3pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kocaelispor EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 23%
-20% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.47/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.67
-21% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -24%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 73%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
20.9 Crosses 15.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kocaelispor
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Ümraniyespor
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.14 xG 1.47
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 1
358 Passes 289
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.04.2024 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-0 HT 0-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
01.12.2023 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 0-3 HT 0-2 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
08.01.2022 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-0 HT 0-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
16.08.2021 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 0-3 HT 0-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kocaelispor
1-0
AWAY Ümraniyespor
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 2
384 Passes 309
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH Kocaelispor vs Ümraniyespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kocaelispor nicked a narrow win over Ümraniyespor 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kocaelispor as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Kocaelispor had 55% of the ball to Ümraniyespor's 45%, shots finished 12-3.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Ümraniyespor led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Kocaelispor and 2.00 for Ümraniyespor.

What was the final score of Kocaelispor vs Ümraniyespor?

Kocaelispor 1-0 Ümraniyespor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kocaelispor vs Ümraniyespor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kocaelispor win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Kocaelispor 47%, draw 29%, Ümraniyespor 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kocaelispor), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kocaelispor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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