Cruzeiro 1-0 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
19%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.81
No
41%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.55
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.21
6+ Goals
10%
11.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
2.09
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.9
X/1
14%
4.14
X/2
5%
10.1
X/X
6%
5.54
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.25
2/2
10%
8.08
2/X
10%
16.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.25 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
57%
+0.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.1pp
19%
Away Win
20%
-0.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
51%
+7.9pp
41%
BTTS No
49%
-7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 22%
-7% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -13%
1.54/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.52
-3% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +3%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
437 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 72%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
23.0 Crosses 15.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fortaleza
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.20 xG 1.11
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
421 Passes 245
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.05.2025 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-2 HT 0-2 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
06.08.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-2 HT 1-2 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
18.04.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-1 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
19.11.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-1 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
22.06.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-1 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
27.10.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
1-0
AWAY Fortaleza
1.67 xG 0.89
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
399 Passes 306
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro edged past Fortaleza 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cruzeiro as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 55% of the ball to Fortaleza's 45%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 1.67 to 0.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.83 for Fortaleza.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza?

Cruzeiro 1-0 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Serie A on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 58%, draw 23%, Fortaleza 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruzeiro) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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