Sagamihara 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
38%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
38%
-2.7pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.6pp
38%
Away Win
33%
+5.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.3pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagamihara EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +14%
0.97/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.06
-27% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
276 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.7 Crosses 19.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagamihara
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
314 Passes 292
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.03.2025 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 HT 1-0 Sagamihara Sagamihara JAP3
17.08.2024 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 3-2 HT 2-1 Sagamihara Sagamihara JAP3
22.06.2024 Sagamihara Sagamihara 3-2 HT 0-2 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
28.10.2023 Sagamihara Sagamihara 0-2 HT 0-2 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
03.06.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 5-3 HT 2-0 Sagamihara Sagamihara JAP3
20.11.2022 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 0-0 Sagamihara Sagamihara JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagamihara
1-0
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 10
184 Passes 280
60% Pass Accuracy 67%
11 Crosses 31
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sagamihara vs Matsumoto Yamaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagamihara squeezed past Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Sagamihara made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Sagamihara had 41% of the ball to Matsumoto Yamaga's 59%, shots finished 15-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Matsumoto Yamaga led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sagamihara and 2.50 for Matsumoto Yamaga.

What was the final score of Sagamihara vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Sagamihara 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga in the Japan - J3 League on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagamihara vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sagamihara 35%, draw 26%, Matsumoto Yamaga 38%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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