Estoril 1-0 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 19 Dec 2025

Estoril
1-0 HT 1-0
Sporting Braga
📅19/12/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Estoril vs Sporting Braga Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
4.13
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
60%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.95
Over 2.5
44%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
3.46
2-3 Goals
35%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.33
6+ Goals
10%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 35% vs market 23.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
7.77
1/2
11%
23.1
1/X
6%
16.4
X/1
8%
9.73
X/2
15%
4.22
X/X
8%
5.38
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
34%
2.17
2/X
9%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
21%
-4.7pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
60%
Away Win
55%
+5.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Estoril v Sporting Braga — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 59%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
0.91/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.12
-45% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 79%
14.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
14.6 Crosses 20.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1

Estoril vs Sporting Braga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Sporting Braga
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.78 xG 2.32
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
296 Passes 478
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.04.2025 Estoril Estoril 0-2 HT 0-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
06.12.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-2 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
13.04.2024 Estoril Estoril 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
27.01.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 1-1 Estoril Estoril PORLC
03.12.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-1 HT 1-1 Estoril Estoril POR
08.04.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 4-1 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR

Estoril 1-0 Sporting Braga — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
1-0
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.99 xG 1.94
32% Ball Possession 68%
13 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 5
235 Passes 593
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 38
14 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estoril nicked a narrow win over Sporting Braga 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sporting Braga at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Estoril had 32% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 68%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.99 to 1.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Estoril and 2.17 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Sporting Braga?

Estoril 1-0 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 19/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Estoril 16%, draw 23%, Sporting Braga 60%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sporting Braga) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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