Tonbridge Angels 0-1 Worthing — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.8
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
36%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.15
Over 2.5
47%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.85
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
2.99
6+ Goals
10%
9.63
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 31% vs market 19.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
32%
+7.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
36%
Away Win
42%
-5.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
43%
+10.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
57%
-10.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.1pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tonbridge Angels EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Worthing EU Bookmakers 46%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.44/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.46
+10% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
273 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tonbridge Angels
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Worthing
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
05.08.2023 Worthing Worthing 1-0 HT 0-0 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels İCON
04.02.2023 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels 2-1 HT 0-1 Worthing Worthing İCON
22.11.2022 Worthing Worthing 3-2 HT 3-1 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels İCON
POST-MATCH Tonbridge Angels vs Worthing
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Worthing nicked a narrow win over Tonbridge Angels 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 24% / 36%) promised a tight game; Worthing found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Worthing led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tonbridge Angels and 1.67 for Worthing.

What was the final score of Tonbridge Angels vs Worthing?

Tonbridge Angels 0-1 Worthing in the England - Conference on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tonbridge Angels vs Worthing?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tonbridge Angels win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Tonbridge Angels 40%, draw 24%, Worthing 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Tonbridge Angels) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tonbridge Angels) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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