Fleetwood Town 0-1 Portsmouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.87
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
54%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.51
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.31
6+ Goals
13%
12.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.6
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
23.45
1/X
8%
14.3
X/1
7%
8.82
X/2
17%
4.17
X/X
9%
4.94
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
27%
2.31
2/X
6%
13.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.45 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
23%
+0.6pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.8pp
54%
Away Win
52%
+1.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fleetwood Town EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 56%
-4% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.02/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.08
+19% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +9%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
243 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 75%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.5
16.6 Crosses 22.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fleetwood Town
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Portsmouth
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.92 xG 1.59
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
232 Passes 293
65% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.12.2023 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-1 HT 1-0 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
24.01.2023 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
08.10.2022 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-1 HT 1-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
26.02.2022 Portsmouth Portsmouth 3-3 HT 1-3 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
07.08.2021 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
16.01.2021 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fleetwood Town
0-1
AWAY Portsmouth
1.08 xG 1.10
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 10
189 Passes 386
66% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fleetwood Town vs Portsmouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portsmouth edged past Fleetwood Town 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Portsmouth as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Fleetwood Town had 38% of the ball to Portsmouth's 62%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 1.08 to 1.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portsmouth led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.50 for Portsmouth.

What was the final score of Fleetwood Town vs Portsmouth?

Fleetwood Town 0-1 Portsmouth in the England - 1st Division on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fleetwood Town vs Portsmouth?

Before kick-off our model rated an Portsmouth win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Fleetwood Town 23%, draw 23%, Portsmouth 54%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portsmouth) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Portsmouth) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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