Espanyol 2-1 Villarreal II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 20 Jan 2024

Espanyol
2-1 HT 2-1
Villarreal II
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Espanyol vs Villarreal II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.3
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.54
6+ Goals
9%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 30% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.08
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
5%
16.5
X/1
18%
3.67
X/2
9%
9.76
X/X
10%
5.37
2/1
8%
23.0
2/2
7%
7.86
2/X
10%
17.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-7.2pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.2pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.8pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Espanyol v Villarreal II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Espanyol EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal II EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
1.81/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.54
+32% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
26.2 Crosses 11.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5

Espanyol vs Villarreal II Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Espanyol
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Villarreal II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.11 xG 1.56
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 7
375 Passes 249
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 21
31 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.10.2023 Villarreal II Villarreal II 3-1 HT 2-1 Espanyol Espanyol İS2

Espanyol 2-1 Villarreal II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Espanyol
2-1
AWAY Villarreal II
1.64 xG 0.84
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 8
426 Passes 341
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Espanyol vs Villarreal II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Espanyol nicked a narrow win over Villarreal II 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Espanyol as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Espanyol had 55% of the ball to Villarreal II's 45%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 1.64 to 0.84.

What was the final score of Espanyol vs Villarreal II?

Espanyol 2-1 Villarreal II in the Spain - 2nd Division on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Espanyol vs Villarreal II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Espanyol win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Espanyol 51%, draw 25%, Villarreal II 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Espanyol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Espanyol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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