Lucchese 3-1 Recanatese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
3.47
6+ Goals
14%
13.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
6%
1/X
3%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
58%
-5.6pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.2pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.7pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lucchese EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Recanatese EU Bookmakers 21%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.42/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.54
-18% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lucchese
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Recanatese
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.09.2023 Recanatese Recanatese 1-3 HT 0-1 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
12.02.2023 Lucchese Lucchese 1-3 HT 0-1 Recanatese Recanatese İTC
16.10.2022 Recanatese Recanatese 0-0 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
POST-MATCH Lucchese vs Recanatese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lucchese saw off Recanatese 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lucchese as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lucchese and 1.33 for Recanatese.

What was the final score of Lucchese vs Recanatese?

Lucchese 3-1 Recanatese in the Italy - Serie C on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lucchese vs Recanatese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lucchese win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lucchese 53%, draw 23%, Recanatese 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lucchese), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lucchese) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
20 Jan 2024
18:15 Juventus II vs Rimini Analysis →
18:15 Lumezzane vs Vicenza Analysis →
20:30 Renate vs Pergolettese Analysis →
20:30 GIANA Erminio vs Atalanta II Analysis →
20:30 Pro Vercelli vs Triestina Analysis →
20:30 Padova Calcio vs Alessandria Analysis →