Padova Calcio 1-0 Alessandria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.32
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.71
Over 2.5
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.81
No
58%
1.38
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.55
2-3 Goals
37%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
4.27
6+ Goals
8%
22.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
25%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
71%
-7.6pp
20%
Draw
19%
+0.8pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+6.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-2.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+2.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
32%
+10.9pp
58%
BTTS No
68%
-10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Alessandria EU Bookmakers 12%
-1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.70/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.72
-8% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +0%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
374 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Padova Calcio
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Alessandria
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.09.2023 Alessandria Alessandria 1-2 HT 1-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
08.08.2021 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-2 HT 0-0 Alessandria Alessandria İTK
17.06.2021 Alessandria Alessandria 0-0 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
13.06.2021 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-0 HT 0-0 Alessandria Alessandria İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Padova Calcio
1-0
AWAY Alessandria
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Padova Calcio vs Alessandria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio edged past Alessandria 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Padova Calcio as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Padova Calcio had 47% of the ball to Alessandria's 53%, shots finished 12-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Padova Calcio and 0.75 for Alessandria.

What was the final score of Padova Calcio vs Alessandria?

Padova Calcio 1-0 Alessandria in the Italy - Serie C on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Padova Calcio vs Alessandria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Padova Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Padova Calcio 64%, draw 20%, Alessandria 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Padova Calcio), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Padova Calcio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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